Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 5.304794 6.324822 7.454234 8.792746 10.330758 12.037541 14.069596
2025-02-23 3.472704 4.746553 6.320536 8.386245 11.001184 14.174713 18.287761
2025-03-02 2.367697 3.664004 5.429981 7.960327 11.432639 15.963035 22.240733
2025-03-09 1.765254 3.051245 4.959171 7.904428 12.224769 18.200435 26.929806
2025-03-16 1.328762 2.549300 4.508968 7.744630 12.778427 20.101119 31.288906
2025-03-23 1.127020 2.363113 4.483505 8.182911 14.216457 23.350080 37.800358
2025-03-30 0.919385 2.107483 4.283221 8.287346 15.118134 25.852255 43.393109
2025-04-06 0.747459 1.870478 4.061496 8.303634 15.851089 28.127162 48.788517
2025-04-13 0.608283 1.660043 3.842435 8.277731 16.487002 30.273645 54.115320
2025-04-20 0.559768 1.635429 3.976654 8.914108 18.329024 34.521971 63.091827
2025-04-27 0.485913 1.530335 3.924729 9.178527 19.517549 37.750265 70.597279
2025-05-04 0.429413 1.452391 3.914619 9.518907 20.869948 41.345725 78.932004
2025-05-11 0.353966 1.304446 3.728043 9.485554 21.540963 43.857396 85.703439
2025-05-18 0.277808 1.127643 3.437543 9.186665 21.662059 45.400197 90.922454
2025-05-25 0.212321 0.956406 3.120193 8.772694 21.495245 46.388070 95.213567
2025-06-01 0.174046 0.859601 2.973510 8.728512 22.086830 48.838194 102.297509
2025-06-08 0.139055 0.758204 2.789118 8.560420 22.386479 50.736491 108.467969
2025-06-15 0.127635 0.745310 2.858607 9.039738 24.162245 55.658304 120.594847
2025-06-22 0.108772 0.691753 2.792178 9.154192 25.117290 58.988827 129.856201
2025-06-29 0.090918 0.633213 2.695656 9.172201 25.847582 61.905238 138.472982
2025-07-06 0.075243 0.576035 2.588920 9.144107 26.462448 64.617867 146.832192
2025-07-13 0.072914 0.588958 2.728218 9.836509 28.883308 71.277267 163.351771
2025-07-20 0.064763 0.564627 2.728761 10.124023 30.330933 75.943541 176.092526